The Light Entertainment at the End of the Tunnel. Ridin' that train... yes, that train...

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Projectile-vomiting drunks and clap-raddled junkies

My good friend and un-indicted co-conspirator Mr Zymurgy commented:
I don't think people have been investing for years but rather gambling, this looks like the casino at 1 hour before closing when fights break out and people throw up on the floor, probably a great time to do something but what?
Good question. Prior to these short funds, there was no good way to bet on the downside that I know of, except maybe put options. Even with nerves of steel and brains of sawdust, shorts are too rich for my blood. Unlimited downside risk: homey don't play that. But now we have risk-limited ways of betting down as well as up. Yes, Mr Zymurgy, we are in a smoke-filled room at 3am surrounded by drunken rich people with unmentionable predilections and bad breath, betting breathtaking sums on their 3rd ex-wife's mother's birthday. When the going gets weird, the weird turn to weird ETFs. Beyond that is left only options on weird ETFs, a dark and lonely road I may yet walk down, God have mercy on my soul. > I am afraid it will make some sort of rally. So true. And yet Asia is not terribly impressed. Nothing at this point, nearly 3am, is up 3%, and the Hang Seng (the important one for our purposes) is only up.. whu-whu-whu-wait-uh-minute, I was going to say up 1.5% like it was a half hour ago (3.6% earlier) but now it is *down* 0.65%. The curve is pretty steep. OK, now it is past 3am. Europe appears to be opening nearly 3% higher. I doubt they will close that high. Asia futures appear to be flat near as I can tell. NDX futures are up sharply, to 1817. Tomorrow I wil be looking for QID below 49, FXP below 90, and SKF below 100. I will definitely be looking for FXP at 85, but may take anything I can find below 90. Unless the Hang Seng picks up, it may not get there. But looking at the futures, QID should go down to maybe 48. SKF will be tempting (thanks for mentioning this) because it appears the financials are at the root of this rally, but they are clap-raddled whores selling smack in kindergarten playgrounds, to say it with polite euphemisms. I'll look real hard at SKF tomorrow. Any of these positions I take, I will be prepared to hold until next week if need be. I have True Faith in the recession, and will not be spooked into selling at a loss. I could have done that with my QID and FXP, and lost fairly big instead of won big. Your mileage, as always, may vary.

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